Abstract
This Document addresses the security challenges and opportunities that the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina will face in the next decade. With Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strategic position within the Western Balkans, global security dynamics, and its emerging role within NATO, the AFBiH should adapt to various geopolitical and technological developments. The thematic level will address cybersecurity threats, emerging military technologies, terrorism, regional cooperation, and more. The paper argues that AFBiH can gain much-needed defense capability through international partnerships, namely, NATO, by adopting effective and affordable technologies while focusing on niche operational competencies such as peacekeeping and regional stability operations.
Keywords: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armed Forces, NATO, cybersecurity, emerging military technologies, regional security, defense strategy
Introduction
Changes in global security dynamics pose challenges and opportunities for countries from different parts of the world now and then. In the case of small and medium-sized states, these changes are felt stronger, as in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. With its peculiar political and security landscape, BiH experiences most of the threats and opportunities in efforts to maintain sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national security. This paper addresses the security challenges and opportunities that AFBiH will likely face over the next decade in light of emerging threats from cybersecurity, military technology, terrorism, and regional cooperation.
The strategic geography of Bosnia and Herzegovina places it at the junction of European, Middle Eastern, and Eurasian interests. It thus creates a strategic placement in both regional and global security initiatives. NATO notes that in 2023, BiH will be essential to overall regional stability (Lopez, 2022). As a country with significant defense reforms, BiH aspires to align itself further with NATO standards.
The Central aim of this paper, however, emanates from the understanding that the responsibility of BiH’s armed forces is to protect and defend the constitution, the sovereignty, and the national interests of the country, as well as contribute to peacekeeping operations (Alibašić, 2020). In the coming decade, the leading task of AFBiH is to establish deterrence capabilities aimed at reducing threats toward national security while supporting international stability.
Current Global Security Environment and Its Impact on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)
From the end of the twentieth century to today, unprecedented changes have occurred in the world security environment. Globalization and revolutionary changes in information technologies have created new possibilities for national security but have simultaneously challenged it. Countries and international organizations increasingly realize that the traditional concept of deterrence by threat of the use of Force will not suffice to ensure defense against national and collective security threats.
Among the gravest security threats, some are directed against groups and individuals. NATO’s military intervention against Yugoslavia ‘foreshadowed’ a significant shift concerning countries as the main security actors. Their security has become more complex, including many actors of different origins and natures. The new security environment would be characterized by unpredictability and limited visibility. The most significant threats that dominate the security environment of today encompass terrorism, the proliferation of WMDs, failed and failing states, organized crime, cyberspace, migration, as well as natural disasters.
Most of these contemporary threats are caused by non-state actors, and their nature does not target clearly defined subjects and spaces. At the same time, these threats are interconnected, having no isolated nature, and that generates a spiral effect. Eliminating global security threats, since the latter is marked by their transnational character, with the help of classical security instruments is not the best solution. Such challenges can only be successfully overcome by combining the activities of the international community and equally dividing responsibilities following the capabilities of every security sphere. Such long-term commitment to global security interests could be the backbone of a successful fight against new global threats while improving the defense of Southeast Europe’s regional security and BiH’s national security.
Globalization and the rapid proliferation of advanced technologies have radically changed today’s security environment. Some emerging threats include cyber warfare, terrorism, and organized crime, which are increasingly transnational and involve non-state actors (Bieber, 2019). Traditional deterrence strategies are to say that military Forces cannot deal with these risks.
These global threats are taken most importantly by Southeast Europe and the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Due to the past conflicts within the region and its proximity to unstable areas, national security faces many difficulties. The security environment in which BiH exists is defined by regional conflicts, migration crises, and aspirations to be part of the Euro-Atlantic structures (Juncos, 2018).
Need for the Armed Forces of BiH (AFBiH) to Prepare for Future Challenges
Compared to recent years, the security environment in BiH has been relatively stable. Still, given that the security system is dynamic, many open questions emerge concerning the future role and structure of the AFBiH due to the emergence of new security challenges. The activities that have taken place within the scope of defense reform received priority attention from the national political leadership during the last ten years. Emphasis has been placed on these activities of internal transformations of AFBiH, which are crucial for achieving the goals concerning Euro-Atlantic integration of BiH and ensuring continued solid contribution to peace and security in itself and wider Europe. However, the further development and efficiency of operational structures will be an increasingly high priority in addressing multi-faceted security challenges over the horizon.
The primary purpose of AFBiH remains the realization of national security interests through deterrence or defeat of potential enemies, support to the population and civil authorities in crisis prevention, elimination of natural catastrophic events, or participation in search and rescue activities, and capability for cooperation with international partners in maintaining peace and stability. The future need for AFBiH is related to the political ambition of becoming a member of the Partnership for Peace and, later, NATO and the EU. This raises the question of how the AFBiH should be constituted and what it will take to make the Force sustainable. Three factors that affect the future need for AFBiH are the risk to which BiH is exposed, BiH defense policy, and the capabilities developed for the AFBiH and the country’s resources.
AFBiH needs, accordingly, to develop capabilities in several fields to prepare for the broad spectrum of the potential threat: to create responsive, relevant, deployable forces with a modern, flexible force composed of multi-purpose, interoperable units capable of operating independently or as part of an international coalition, which can defend the borders and national territory of BiH and contribute to regional and global security. In addition to core military tasks, AFBiH must provide the capability for effective parliamentary mandates issued concerning emergencies and search and rescue operations, especially under harsh climate conditions. Contributions to the military establishments of BiH and the development of security sector reform in BiH are also needed. In developing these capabilities, AFBiH will have to consider certain existing and future security challenges it faces. The three most relevant considerations in that respect are AFBiH vision, adaptability, and balanced forces.
Cybersecurity Threats
The Rising Importance of Cyber Defense
With the ever-increasing reliance on digital infrastructure by governments, militaries, and businesses, cybersecurity is fast becoming one of those critical domains on which national defense depends. The potential for cyberattacks to disrupt services, cripple communications, and jeopardize military operations has grown by leaps and bounds(Lopez, 2022). BiH is more prone to such an attack because of its relatively underdeveloped cyberinfrastructure. Civilian and military networks are highly vulnerable to intrusion without proper cyber defense measures.
NATO’s Cyber Defense Programs
Cybersecurity has become essential to national defense in contemporary security, mostly for small countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina. While the nation’s critical infrastructures have increasingly become more reliant on digital systems, this now increases the threat vectors of cyberattacks. For the modernization of its defense forces, BiH will make strong cybersecurity measures a priority. At the same time, cooperation with international structures such as NATO, in conditions of limited resources, provides a special opportunity to develop the capacity for cyber defense.
During the development of NATO’s Cyber Defence Programs, the cyber resilience of BiH will increase. As a general rule, NATO’s strategy in this domain contains two complementary goals: the protection of critical infrastructure and the infusion of the principle of defense interoperability. In the words of Kaska & Rühlig, 2021, this fits within the goals sought by BiH for the modernization of its Armed Forces without seriously excessive investment. It also includes NATO cyber-capacity building, intending to further enable BiH to enhance its cyber defense posture in light of available expertise and technology contributions from other NATO Allies and partners.
Emerging Military Technologies
Adoption of Cost-Effective Technologies
As military technology continues to evolve, even the smallest countries, like Bosnia and Herzegovina, have an opportunity to improve their defense capabilities in a much more affordable way. Advanced emerging technologies such as aerial systems, artificial intelligence, and robotic platforms provide realistic options for nations instead of large-scale defense systems. These technologies can potentially contribute to BiH’s security development by offering state-of-the-art ISR capabilities with minimal investment in large and costly conventional forces (Kaska & Rühlig, 2021).
AI-powered decision-making tools also further enhance efficiency in command and control functions by better managing military assets and personnel (Locher & Donley, 2004). Most of these technologies improve operational efficiency but ensure that BiH remains interoperable with NATO forces, is aligned with international defense standards, and simultaneously keeps cost-effective strategies.
NATO’s Role in Technological Integration
Considering the NATO technology-sharing programs, it is particularly important for Bosnia and Herzegovina, as there are some military tools whose purchase would be impossible due to their cost (NATO, 2023). In this respect, aligning military systems and standards with those of NATO means that the BiH forces would be fitted with the most modern technologies and fully interoperable with the other NATO member states in multinational operations.
Moreover, NATO’s focus on technology transfer and joint exercises provides privileged opportunities continuously to update the nation’s defense capabilities at BiH so that it remains strategically prepared to face modern security challenges (Lopez, 2022; Kaska & Rühlig, 2021). This cooperation enhances BiH’s national defense posture while continuing to reinforce its role within the international defense community.
Shifting Alliances: Integration into NATO
Strategic Value of Membership in NATO
The long-term defense strategy of BiH is based on the aspiration to deepen its integration with NATO. Therefore, since 2010, the Membership Action Plan has driven BiH’s military reforms and international cooperation (Juncos, 2018). In light of the region’s historical instability, NATO integration remains among the most essential factors that guarantee the security of BiH.
Benefits of NATO Interoperability
Membership in NATO offers BiH the benefits of operational preparedness and training. Common exercises and defense collaboration with partner states allow the AFBiH to develop practical experience in modern war techniques and provide a higher level of development in the general infrastructure of defense (NATO, 2015). NATO stresses interoperability, which also prepares BiH for peacekeeping missions and regional security.
Terrorism and Conflicts in the Region
Terrorism and Migratory Flows
BiH’s geographical position is pretty difficult; it stands on major migration routes that have been in extensive use by refugees and asylum seekers from war-torn countries such as Syria, Afghanistan, and North Africa. These routes are more familiarly known as the “Balkan route,” they have seen many migrants pass through in their quest to get into Europe. While the majority of migrants are not directly involved with terrorist activities, the volume of migration poses some logistical and security challenges (Bieber, 2019). In the last years, these migratory flows were exploited by terrorist organizations that infiltrated Europe to conduct attacks, sometimes to plan and execute them.
BiH is particularly vulnerable due to the porous borders and difficulty monitoring every point along these migration routes. Terrorist networks can exploit each weakness in border security, and therefore, it is so important that AFBiH plays a role in deterring the movement of terrorists into Europe (Juncos, 2018). This is a task of effective border control and close cooperation with international intelligence agencies and NATO partners regarding tracking and intercepting terrorist movements and communications.
From observation and patrolling to highly sophisticated counterterrorism, including technology, intelligence sharing, and multinational efforts in combating transnational terrorism, AFBiH is essential in ensuring security at BiH’s borders. Here, the strategic partnership with NATO and the regional defense coalitions becomes indispensable for the country. NATO provides AFBiH with essential resources, intelligence sharing, and training to strengthen its operations against terrorism.
What is more, this set has been complemented by the combination of terrorism and migration, turning social tension in BiH, or even more broadly in the Balkans, enormous. Bieber further underlined that any inability or failure to respond appropriately to such multi-dimensional challenges is likely to invoke a spillover effect of regional instability, thereby increasing the overall vulnerability to terrorist activities within the borders of BiH, hence further exacerbating the need for a strong and responsive defense strategy.
Regional Instability and Conflicts
The Western Balkans is thus a region burdened with political and ethnic tensions, but most of all with the unresolved Serbian-Kosovo dispute. These unresolved issues carry a great risk of destabilization that can easily spill over into Bosnia and Herzegovina because of the ethnic complexities and historical tensions in the country. For example, Merdzanovic 2015 illustrates that regional instability may raise the scale of the conflict to a wider conflict since Serbia, Kosovo, or any other neighbor might raise disputes on territorial integrity and political sovereignty.
These conflicts, thus, both in the short and long run, pose an immediate and long-term security threat to BiH. The ethnic divide in the country, between Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs, among others, reflecting some of the regional conflicts, makes BiH more vulnerable to political influence from outside in comparison with other neighboring countries, internally creating conflict. These are further combined by nationalist groups and political fractions with such regional ethnic struggles, thereby adding more volatility to the region. For this reason, the AFBiH has to be vigilant in protecting its borders while serving as a factor of stability for the entire Western Balkans.
It is seminal to involve BiH in peacekeeping missions to mitigate regional instability within BiH and be part of international coalitions. This could be BiH’s involvement in multinational efforts through partnerships with NATO, the European Union, and other regional defense frameworks as part of conflict prevention and peacekeeping. Therefore, these international partnerships are important; BiH needs to retain stability, not further destabilization in the region, with outside conflicts between Serbia and Kosovo.
The strategic transformation of the armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina
- NATO and EU Partnerships for Capacity Building Partnership Opportunities
The DCB initiative allows the OSBiH to upgrade its logistic, operational, and tactical capabilities by participating in NATO-led exercises and infusing its partner member states’ defense expertise. Likewise, the partnerships with the European Union could become one of the essential additional sources for OSBiH, among others, for peacekeeping, border security, and conflict prevention. These collaborations mean that OSBiH can upgrade its military standards to make them even more reliable partners in international missions.
- Technological Upgrades Cost-Effective Military Technologies
The limited Bosnia and Herzegovina defense budget dictates that OSBiH should focus on acquiring affordable military technologies like drones, UAS, and modern communication systems. These technologies have become the fabric of modern military activities because a force can conduct surveillance, gather intelligence, and reconnoiter with the least financial outlay. In addition, such technologies would further solidify OSBiH’s position in defense matters relating to border security, illegal crossing, and smuggling. Cooperation with NATO provides a development opportunity to make such technological skills available to the OSBiH so that it can implement its innovations without overstretching its finances.
- Focus on Niche Capabilities Specialization
More efforts should be put toward building niche capabilities that best suit the inherent strengths of OSBiH and are in demand internationally rather than on establishing a fully-fledged military force. This includes peacekeeping, post-conflict reconstruction, and humanitarian missions, gaining great importance in international military activities. Specialization in these identified fields could render OSBiH irreplaceable in NATO missions and truly contribute to world peace and security. Considering that Bosnia and Herzegovina have been engaged in peacekeeping missions, this will constitute a good background on which OSBiH can build its reputation and expertise. (NATO, 2023).
- Contribution of AFBiH to Regional Stability
Given its strategic position, Bosnia and Herzegovina should lead in promoting regional stability within the Western Balkans. The OSBiH can reduce security risks within the region, expanding contributions to peacekeeping missions and developing closer ties with neighbors. NATO considers further involvement in multinational operations to provide the OSBiH with more operational experience, together with evidence of the commitment of BiH to regional security as such. Not to mention that developing regional cooperation will enable OSBiH to take advantage of this available resource and information, which may be of primary importance in dealing with such complex security challenges as migration, organized crime, and terrorism.
Conclusion
In the coming decade, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s armed forces will face complex security challenges ranging from an increasingly cyber threat to regional instability. Focusing efforts on partnership with NATO, adopting cost-effective technologies, and developing specialized skills in a few niche military capabilities will enable AFBiH to build a strong defense posture and contribute meaningfully to regional and global security. Whether the ability to manage these challenges or seize opportunities opened by international cooperation, advanced technologies, and knowledge will be adequate will define the future of the security strategy for BiH.
References
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